Toronto professor claims FIFA draw contains hidden bias that skews the oddsA U of T probability scientist says the FIFA draw contains a hidden bias that doesn't give equal weight to all possible team combinations, effectively skewing the draw.

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Probability scientist says sequential method doesn't give equal weight to all possible team combinations

Chris Jones · for CBC Sports(The Associated Press)

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Rosenthal and Roberts have devised and proposed three alternative selection methods, each of which offers a perfectly uniform draw. Playing with their online simulator is weirdly satisfying, like watching a skilled artisan fit invisible mitre joints into place. Pick after pick, the eight groups are filled out, purely and objectively.

Their most stylish and exciting method still includes the use of lottery balls — which, let's face it, are kind of fun. A computer algorithm gives equal weight to each theoretical candidate for a group, while also meeting all of FIFA's constraints. Selectors could then be offered a collection of balls containing those names to draw manually.

Rosenthal and Roberts have approached FIFA with their trio of solutions. At the moment, at least, the probability that any of them will be implemented seems … limited.

"We're just two professors out of a sea of billions of football fans out there, so I'm not holding my breath that FIFA is going to change everything and do it our way," Rosenthal said. "But they are aware there are some issues."

Which means there's always a chance.

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